Indonesia and the South China Sea dispute

In a Foreign Affairs article last year, Robert Kaplan wrote that notwithstanding its continental being, China would eventually expand seaward as a consequence of growing overseas commercial interests and soaring demands for energy imports. It is too early to tell whether China’s seaward turn will create instability in the maritime domain. But one must comprehend the fact that the shift is inevitable.

The recent incidents and tension in the South China Sea (SCS) are but only symptoms of China’s growing maritime assertiveness. The US Energy Information Administration reports that Chinese sources estimated the area to hold as high as 213 billion barrels of oil and 2 quadrillion cubic feet of natural gas reserves. Not to mention its significance for fisheries and international navigation. Given these factors, the tension stemming from the dispute seems natural. It is, however, everyone’s responsibility to prevent the situation from spinning out of control.

True, thus far, China has managed to avoid conflict with its neighbors. It still adheres to the 2002 Declaration of Conduct (DOC) on the South China Sea, deploys mostly paramilitary forces to patrol its coastal waters and economic exclusive zone (EEZ) and has scaled down its rhetoric concerning the threat or use of force.

Read more