Turkey’s strategic reliability as a NATO ally has become questionable at best

Air base in Incirlik, Turkey
Increasing Turkish divergence from U.S., European Union, and Western strategic objectives has given urgency to Western military planning as to how to compensate for the probable lack of access in the near future to Turkish bases, air space, and surface transit options.

Planning by NATO states and other allies of NATO — from Australia to Israel — must also take into account the possibility that Turkey could move from being an alliance partner to a state which could take an obfuscating or even adversarial position in the region.

Turkey’s increasingly independent actions on regional issues, including potentially worsening relations with Iran, could one day lead to a broader conflict from in the region which could necessitate Western powers seeking a range of alternative options.

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