Reducing Britain's nuclear capability would be a grave mistake

The Cabinet Office will this month publish its review into alternatives to like-for-like replacement of the UK's Trident nuclear deterrent – or, more specifically, the Vanguard class of Royal Navy submarines that currently carries the Trident D5 ballistic missile.

While the review will shy away from making firm policy choices (for intra-coalition political reasons), we know that alternatives to a replacement Trident system will be presented as "compelling" options, but exposed as both less capable and more costly, and therefore unlikely to be pursued.

The move towards a reduced deterrent posture, however, is likely to come in the form of a suggestion that only building two or three boats in the new Trident-carrying submarine class would be a plausible option – a concession dear to senior Liberal Democrat defence figures, and one that may be tempting to other leaders in search of savings – in the place of the four outgoing Vanguards.

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